Solar photovoltaics is a direct use of solar resources to generate electricity, which is one of the most important renewable energy application approaches. Regional PV output could be affected by the regional patterns of
Future PV power generation, in particular, is linked to atmospheric parameters that affect surface solar radiation such as cloud coverage and optical thickness, aerosols, and water vapor.
Although PV power capacity is expected to dominate growth in the renewable capacity in the foreseeable future 2, PV power outputs change with climate. For example, changes in the frequency of warm, cloudy weather can substantially alter PV energy yields.
However, we find that PV generation becomes more uniform in both SSP scenarios: the change in correlation is positive virtually everywhere (Fig. 5). Moreover, the signal is approximately twice as strong in SSP5-8.5 as in SSP1-2.6, suggesting that the correlation increases with forcing.
Although our results confirm that the average PV energy yields are expected to change to only a minor to moderate extent (under the RCP4.5 scenario), they highlight the fact that these relatively modest changes mask substantial shifts in the number of days with very low PV power outputs.
The solar PV industry is changing rapidly, with innovations occurring along the entire value chain. In recent years, a major driver for innovation has been the push for higher efficiency (Green, 2019).
Over the entire operation period (25 years), the total PV power generation will loss 6.25% due to degradation. To investigate the impact of PV degradation on PV power generation, the 75 years from 2025 to 2100 are divided into three periods: 2025–2050, 2050–2075, 2075–2100, with 25 years for each period.
